signalmap. The trend bureau for boards and leadership teams.
We sell the past. It just hasn't arrived here yet.
Book a talk or briefingImagination is available elsewhere, and for less.
We watch what's coming and check the sums before we tell you anything. We have three instruments for that.
How far ahead other markets are. Measured, not guessed.
You know how much time you have. And where to read, today, how it turns out.
ReckoningOther people's forecasts, checked against dated evidence.
Before your company bets on a forecast, you see how that source's earlier predictions have held up.
HotspotEarly warning: what's heating up before everyone else sees it.
You hear early what's gathering speed in the US, the UK and China. With what it means here attached.
We read up on how things turned out elsewhere. Most of what you're being sold as new, another market went through years ago. And what happened there is in public statistics: who came along, how fast, and where it got stuck. One example:
Where everyday shopping, card payment and software move online, Germany arrives just under five years after Britain.
Not across the board. Germans buy technology online earlier, and German firms are slightly ahead at selling online. On shopping and paying, Germany is behind in every series.
| Cashless payments overall |
6 years
76 months
|
|---|---|
| Buying insurance online |
6 years
71 months
|
| Buying groceries online |
5 years
65 months
|
| Card payments at the till, acceptance density |
at least 5 years
at least 56 months
|
| Cloud software in business |
4 years
51 months
|
| Online banking |
4 years
46 months
|
| Companies selling through their own web shop |
at least 1 year ahead
at least 11 months
|
| Buying electronics online |
2 years ahead
23 months
|
| Paying for news online |
5 years ahead
60 months
|
| Buying computer hardware online |
6 years ahead
66 months
|
The point where the UK reaches the level. The point where Germany reaches it. A bar pointing left means Germany got there first.
How it's measuredWe take the forecasts others sell and hold them up against public, dated evidence. What did it say, by when, and what came of it?
Few survive. The instructive bit is where they fail.
"By 2025, 75% of conversations at work will be recorded and analyzed, enabling the discovery of added organizational value or risk."
Gartner, Top Predictions for 2021 and Beyond, published 21 October 2020. Deadline: 2025.
The deadline has passed. No public survey counts how many workplace conversations are recorded. Whether the prediction came true cannot be established.Checked 5 September 2026.
"With the EU AI Office and data protection authorities joining forces, a general-purpose AI (GPAI) model's provider will receive the first fine for violating the EU AI Act in 2025."
Forrester, Predictions 2025: Technology & Security, published 22 October 2024. Deadline: 2025.
According to the European Commission, the AI Office's enforcement powers only apply from 2 August 2026. That was already in the law when Forrester published the prediction.Checked 15 September 2026.
"ARK estimates that data center spending on AI processors will scale more than four-fold during the next five years, from $5 billion a year today to $22 billion in 2025."
ARK Invest, Big Ideas 2021, published 26 January 2021. Deadline: 2025.
TechInsights puts 2025 at $220 billion, ten times as much. NVIDIA alone reports $193.7 billion for its data centre business in the fiscal year to January 2026. Right direction, wrong order of magnitude. We don't count that as a hit.Checked 21 October 2026.
Every day we look at what's heating up. The machines do the first sort. Whatever stands out, we check, and we tell you what it means for the German-speaking market.
A talk that ends with dated findings, and with the question of which of them concern your company. In German or English.
We sit down with your leadership team and translate the findings into your situation: what's already decided, what's still open, and how much time the experience of other markets gives you.
In digital since 1999, in start-ups, scale-ups and corporates. We built the checking machine because we kept watching the same things arrive here too late.
signalmap is a trend bureau run by eskape.digital GmbH in Hamburg.
Both via hello@signalmap.de, or read more under Services.
Lead time. 96 indicators from public series by Eurostat, the OECD, the World Bank, the BIS and others, Germany against Britain, the same publisher for both countries each time. The core finding rests on 18 of them, everyday shopping, card payment and cloud software: all behind Britain, median 57 months. Across all 96: median 14 months, 53 behind, 38 ahead, 5 level. Calculated as of 20 October 2026. The ten series above are a selection; all 96 are on the Lead time page.
No comparison with the US. A gap to Britain is not a gap to America, and the two are never averaged. Germany isn't behind across the board: it's ahead on direct debits, ERP software, solar power and electric cars.
Reckoning. Our register holds around 560 dated forecasts from four firms (Future Today Strategy Group, ARK Invest, Forrester, Gartner), published between February 2020 and March 2025. As of 17 September 2026. We check them continuously as their deadlines expire, and publish every verdict with its evidence and the date checked. If a verdict changes, the change is shown with its date and reason.
The two cases. Gartner, 21 October 2020: "By 2025, 75% of conversations at work will be recorded and analyzed, enabling the discovery of added organizational value or risk." (gartner.com, press release "Gartner Unveils Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users in 2021 and Beyond"). Forrester, Predictions 2025: Technology & Security, 22 October 2024: "With the EU AI Office and data protection authorities joining forces, a general-purpose AI (GPAI) model's provider will receive the first fine for violating the EU AI Act in 2025." Evidence: European Commission, "Enforcement of the AI Act" (digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu), page as of 24 August 2026: "The enforcement powers of the AI Office and the national competent authorities of the Member States apply from 2 August 2026, when certain provisions of the AI Act become enforceable." Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 entered into force on 1 August 2024. We wrote this verdict after the deadline had passed; it counts towards no rate.
Arrival windows are editorial estimates and are labelled as such every time.
